“The Donald” Trump is sucking the air out of our neurosurgeon, Ben Carson, M.D.’s, presidential balloon.
Trump Sucks Air From Dr. Carson Campaign
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Dr. Carson was seriously challenging top Republicans for the GOP nomination for the White House before Donald Trump began his bomb throwing march to Iowa at the beginning of July. On July 1, 2015, according to RealClearPolitics Average (RCP) (consolidation of many polls), Dr. Carson was leading The Donald by three percentage points (9.3% to 6.3%) in Iowa. But by July 21, The Donald was leading Dr. Carson 11.8% to 7.8%.
At the national level, it’s even worse. On July 12, Dr. Carson led The Donald 9.8% to 6.5%. By July 21, The Donald had pulled ahead 18.2% to Dr. Carson’s 6%.
Dr. Carson is carrying the “Outsider” mantle that often garners strong support in Iowa by those who say they are fed up with Washington, D.C. Until The Donald began his assault on the Republican establishment, immigrants and Senator John McCain, the “Outsider” crowd had only Dr. Carson or Texas Senator Ted Cruz to call one of their own. With the first Republican debate limited to the top ten contenders on the Fox Network August 6, the scramble to get heard and seen will get a lot messier.
On July 21, Dr. Carson reportedly said he thinks the focus on Trump’s comments is “petty” and see no reason why The Donald should drop out of the race. That’s smart. Dr. Carson will need The Donald’s supporters when he eventually makes one too many incendiary remarks and the “Outsiders” will come back home to Dr. Carson next January in Iowa.
Dr. Carson is safely in the top ten and will have his chance to take on the big three, Trump, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, who lead national polls with 18.2%, 13.7% and 11.7%, respectively. Also on stage should be Senator Marco Rubio (6.8%), Mike Huckabee (6.0%) and Senators Rand Paul and Cruz, each with 5.7%. The last two spots are open and will go to one of the candidates who has less support than the margin of error of the polls.
The debate should be entertaining and voters will see who has the courage to confront The Donald. Bush, Walker and Rubio will likely try to duck and run, while the rest slash and burn. Dr. Carson will probably try to look like a grown up and point to the political warfare as a reason the country needs a surgeon in the White House.
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This is a fascinating development. In my practice we've seen similar outcomes with the revised protocol. The key differentiator seems to be patient selection criteria. Has anyone else noticed the correlation with BMI thresholds?
Great point. I'd push back slightly on the conclusion, the sample size in the cited study is too small to draw population-level inferences. That said, the directional signal is compelling and worth a larger RCT.
We implemented a similar approach last year. Early results are promising but we're still gathering 12-month follow-up data. Happy to share our protocol if anyone is interested.
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